Blogging About Baseball

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim starting pitcher John Lackey is going to command a lot of money in free agency this offseason, putting him out of the reach of all but Major League Baseball’s biggest wallets.

So for everyone else, who’s up for grabs?

The type B free agents in the 2010 class are: Erik Bedard, Doug Davis, Justin Duchscherer, John Garland, Rich Harden, Braden Looper, Jason Marquis, Vincente Padilla, Carl Pavano, Andy Pettitte, Joel Pineiro, Tim Wakefield, and Brandon Webb. All of these pitchers would earn their former teams a sandwich pick in the 2010 draft if they departed.

Wakefield will most likely renew his contract with Boston for $4 million, Pavano will get a contract offer from Minnesota, Pettitte will be resigned by New York, and Webb’s option is certain to be picked up, meaning the crop will be reduced to a handful of resurgent or injured veterans and unreliable and finicky innings eaters.

Besides Lackey, however, there is one other type A free agent: Randy Wolf. Wolf compiled his strongest campaign in a major league uniform in 2009, reaching 200 innings pitched for just the fourth time in his 11 year career. He posted a 3.23 ERA and an 11-7 record.

Many analysts tab Wolf as an option for the teams that do not land Lackey.

In those conversations, another name usually mentioned is Jarrod Washburn, an unclassified free agent.

Washburn had a topsy-turvy season in 2009, dominating the American League for much of the first half, and struggling mightily following his acquisition by the Detroit Tigers at the trade deadline. In 20 starts with Seattle, he posted a 2.64 ERA and earned eight wins. After the trade, he went 1-3 with a 7.33 ERA.

According to news reports today, neither Wolf nor Washburn are in their current teams’ 2010 plans. They will not be tendered contracts.

I do not see Wolf or Washburn as solutions to any contending team’s pitching woes. Both have proven that they can pitch effectively, but neither has been reliable. During his eight seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies, Wolf’s arm was as durable as uncooked spaghetti. And while Washburn’s 2002 campaign with the Anaheim Angels proved he has ace-potential, he’s been just as consistent as a Charlie Zink knuckleball since.

For many, the ship has sailed on the two revived starters. According to Dodger’s General Manager Ned Colleti, “This [free-agent] class doesn’t have…allure to it.”

To sign either starter to a big money, multi-year contract, despite their recent successes, would be disastrous. So what plan of action should GM’s take?

This will be the offseason of one-year, low-money, incentive-laden contracts for starting pitchers. Every free agent starter proved in 2009 that they can pitch successfully when there’s a contract on the line (Jason Marquis and Joel Pineiro being the best examples), so make them do it again. Much like the 2008 offseason, this will be a buyer’s market and players will be forced to sign deals offering less years and less money than expected.

That’s not going to make Randy Wolf happy.

When Wolf signed with the Dodgers in 2009, he was inked for just $5 million. By reaching 200 innings pitched, he earned an extra $3 million in incentives. During the previous three seasons, Wolf averaged a little over 90 innings pitched so the Dodgers were hesitant to sign him for anything spectacular. Any team looking to hire him for a substantial sum of money should also work within those parameters.

According to FanGraphs, his incredible 2009 drove his worth up to $13.6 milion on the open market, an unfathomable figure for someone with his track record.

As a GM, I’d get into a bidding war over just a few guys: the oft-injured Erik Bedard and Ben Sheets and Justin Duchscherer, who could come on the cheap because of his battle with clinical depression.

I’m thinking this could be a strange offseason for last year’s best pitchers.

Will the real Gary Matthews, Jr. please stand up?

From 2003-2007, Gary Matthews, Jr. was an above-average outfielder, patrolling centerfield and providing a significant amount of pop in the first-half of the batting order for the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

In 2008, Matthews’ production dropped off and he clubbed just eight homeruns with 46 RBI while batting significantly lower than his career average of .258.

This year, Gary Matthews, Jr. disappeared.

In parts of 103 games, he hit just four homers and scored just 44 runs. The speed that once made him a top of the order asset and outfield whiz vanished. His Wins Above Replacement (WAR) dwindled for the second consecutive year and his Ultimate Zone Rating, an indicator of fielding prowess, dropped to -17.6, nearly twice what it was in 2008.

Gary Matthews, Jr. is approaching liability status. His contract with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim is valued at nearly $10 million a year, making him one of the highest paid fifth outfielders ever. The 5-year, $50 million contract he signed with the Angels in 2007 has rendered him non-tradable.

Prior to the 2009 season, the Angels looked to deal Matthews. One suitor was the Cincinnati Reds, but they balked at the idea of giving up an arm for a league average bat with dwindling speed and glove skills.

It’s hard to imagine how much the 2009 campaign hurt Matthews, Jr.’s trade value.

Matthews, Jr.’s struggles coincides with three events: the move from hitter friendly Ranger’s Ballpark in Arlington to the dimensions of Anaheim in 2007, his implication in the purchase of Human Growth Hormone and steroids the same year, and left knee surgery prior to the 2009 season.

Matthews, Jr.’s lack of power can also be linked to all three sources.

Ranger’s Ballpark is the seventh most friendly hitter’s park. Angel Stadium is ranked 15th, putting it right in the middle of the pack. The dimensions of the two parks are almost the same, but the air is incredibly different and that’s one thing Matthews benefitted from. Of the four homeruns Matthews hit this season, one was in Arlington on September 20.

An indication that his knee is still bothering him is his stolen bases. In 2006 and 2007, he stole a combined 28 bases. In 2008 and 2009, he stole a total of 12. At the same time, his slugging percentage has gone from a pretty good .457 average in 2006/2007 to a poor .359 in 2008/2009.

According to Matthews’ FanGraphs profile, there is no indication that pitchers are pitching him any different. He’s seeing the same stuff and handling that stuff in the same way (groundballs, flyballs, line drives), but isn’t driving anything out park.

One writer pegs Matthews, Jr. as a player who may never bounce back.

With another season’s rest, Matthews will look to improve upon his 2009 season. If the Angels have it their way, it won’t be in a Halo uniform.

Gary Matthews, Jr. is yet to get a hit this postseason.

ESPN dedicated a brief article to it on its website.

The MLB Network didn’t mention it.

The official site of Major League Baseball acted as if nothing surfaced.

Today’s media has a tendency to squeeze every, last drop of juice out of a story that it can. Sportscenter is the epitome of that. The coverage of Brett Favre’s return last year is perhaps the best example.

Yesterday, ESPN featured a segment on Tennessee Titan’s coach Jeff Fisher. At a charity event on Tuesday, Fisher wore a Peyton Manning jersey, stating, “I just wanted to feel like a winner.” His team is 0-6. While the situation is worthy of a few laughs, it was brought up on every show and debated over. Would it effect his team? Was it the right thing to do?

It was a small piece of news, and got more time than it should have.

On the other hand, the Mariano Rivera spitball incident was, despite its tremendously controversial material, a blip on the big networks’ radars. Video had the game’s best closer spitting on, or near, a baseball. Still photos seemed to purport that the spit hit somewhere near the baseball.

Where was the coverage? Was it squashed before it got too big?

I smell conspiracy. Seriously.

Rivera looked awfully suspicious before spitting. He looked towards second, then peeked over towards third before hawking one in the general vicinity of the baseball. FOX then cut from the scene in quick fashion.

There’s a whole lot of attention on the blogosphere regarding the incident, the reactions ranging from: “Spitballs are thrown using vaseline, not spit!” to “Angels fans are f****** idiots.”

And my answers to that are as follows: A) The spitball is called the spitball for a very good reason and B) Yeah Angel’s fans may have latched onto something menial as the scapegoat for their performance against the Yankees, but they have the right to question the video.

But perhaps everyone is paying attention to the wrong aspect of this story.

And that is, where is the story?

Did the spit hit?

Even if the spit didn’t hit the ball, per se, it certainly came close. To the naked eye, it looked like some of it hit Rivera’s hand. Anyone over the age of six can control where they spit, thus making this pretty explosive evidence that maybe, just maybe Rivera was trying to do something.

Major League Baseball released a statement hours after the video surfaced before clearing him of any wrongdoing. After that, it was water under the bridge.

Considering that MLB umpires have proven they can’t see much of anything (see: prior blog) and that the 45,000 fans in attendance were hundreds of feet away, what makes this news blasphemous enough to reduce it to a non-story?

I smell conspiracy.