Blogging About Baseball

Sometime tomorrow, Baseball America will roll out its prospect rankings for the San Francisco Giant’s organization. The best left-handed pitching prospect in Minor League Baseball, Madison Bumgarner, or the best catching prospect in the game, Buster Posey, will nab the team’s No. 1 spot.

I know this because, well, it really doesn’t take a brain surgeon to figure it out and because my Dad and Step Mom are awesome and surprised me with a little pre-Christmas love. Now I can read all the B.A. analysts gushing about prospects in real-time:

Thank you!

But anyway, back to the San Francisco Giants. In recent years, the team has exponentially fortified its minor league system by uncharacteristically handing out large bonuses. As a result, General Manager Brian Sabean has had tremendous success securing above-average pitching prospects and impact bats at premier positions. Prior to the 2009 season, the organization was ranked fifth in Baseball America‘s talent rankings, the club’s highest mark in the publication’s history.

The organization won’t rank as highly this year, but its still got all the trappings of an impact system.

Behind Bumgarner and Posey, the team’s No. 3 prospect will be Zack Wheeler.

Wheeler, a 6’4″, 170 pound, right-handed power pitcher out of Georgia’s East Paulding High School was considered one of the few elite pitchers in the 2009 draft class. Scouts lauded Wheeler’s prototypical pitcher’s body, potential plus stuff, and poise.

And all the marks were earned: during his senior year at East Paulding High, Wheeler went 9-0 with an ERA of 0.54. During the first round of the Georgia state playoffs, he added a no-hitter and a two-hit complete game to his already impressive resume. He was named the 2009 Gatorade Player of the Year for the state of Georgia.

A consensus first round pick, analysts believed Wheeler would go somewhere between fourth and sixth in the draft; Baltimore, San Francisco, and Atlanta seemed to be the most logical suitors for pitching talent once the few impact bats were taken off the boards.

Would Baltimore pass on premier left-hander Tyler Matzek because of his lofty asking price and pursue Wheeler instead? Or would Wheeler fall to San Francisco? Or his home club in Atlanta?

Well, the Orioles (and a slew of other teams) passed on the pricey Matzek and instead opted for up-’til-then unheralded high school product Matthew Hobgood.

In the Giant’s tradition of going after right-handers in the first round (Cain, 2002; Aardsma, 2003; Lincecum, 2006; Alderson, 2007), Wheeler became the team’s natural pick. He was chosen by the San Francisco Giants sixth overall in the 2009 draft.

And this is where things get interesting.

Zack Wheeler has yet to thrown a professional pitch, yet his stock is still incredibly high.

On August 17, 2009, the Giants signed Wheeler just minutes before the deadline for a record-breaking $3.3 million, the sixth highest bonus ever handed out to a high school draftee. The contract stipulated that he would be under control starting in 2010, a move that ensured another year of his service, but also meant he wouldn’t pitch in 2009.

Still, professional scouts aren’t letting the right-hander’s inexperience get in the way of their judgments.

Throwing from a low three-quarters arm slot, Wheeler’s fastball is easily his best pitch. It routinely sits 90-93 miles-per-hour, but he can rear back and touch 95. In a Giant’s audition in early 2009, it was reported that he actually reached 97, though that seems slightly high. It has tremendous sinking movement and bores in on the hands of righties, making it especially lethal.

Wheeler also possesses an above-average, 78-80 mile-per-hour curveball. It’s too hard to deem it a plus pitch right now because he so much trouble controlling it, but it should play well in the higher levels. Working on his other offspeed offering, a sub-par changeup, will be the main focus of his initial rookie campaign.

Coaches will also work with Wheeler on his inconsistent control, which is more a product of his delivery than of his stuff. Wheeler’s motion is far from unconventional, but he is still prone to bringing his hands too far back and as a result his elbow flies open, wreaking havoc on his offspeed pitches. When his hands remain stable, he’s at his best.

But Wheeler should be coachable enough for those problems to iron themselves out; scouts praise him for his terrific makeup and concentration and he’s also been called a “baseball rat.” Wheeler is listed a just 170 pounds, but once his thin, wiry frame fills out, its highly likely that he will add a few more miles-per-hour to his fastball.

It’s risky to label a 19-year-old who hasn’t even pitched a professional game a future ace, but Wheeler certainly appears to have that upside.

For Giant’s fans, a fully developed Wheeler is part of a tantalizing vision. To go along with a dynamic offense, a starting five of Lincecum, Cain, Barry Zito, Bumgarner, and Wheeler could add up to the team’s first postseason appearance since 2003.

Zack Wheeler: the enigma that hasn’t pitched professionally, but could be the Giant’s third best prospect.

Poor John McDonald.

Just when it looked like the 35-year-old may have finally locked down the Toronto Blue Jays’ starting shortstop gig, the club announced the signing of Alex Gonzalez to a one-year, $2.75 million contract.

Sayonara, starts.

McDonald has been a fan favorite in Toronto since his incredible defensive campaign in 2007. Fans have clamored for the light-hitting veteran to receive an extended audition, but McDonald has been used strictly as a defensive reserve on the Canadian ball club. In five seasons with the team, he’s yet to receive more than 350 at-bats.

And with age 36 approaching fast, McDonald is just a few years away from the proverbial pasture. A starting gig, at this point, is tremendously unlikely.

Still, it’s hard to argue with the Blue Jay’s logic; McDonald just does not have a playable bat at the Major League level.

In parts of 11 seasons, McDonald has stroked just 13 homeruns to go along with a .238 career batting average. That kind of production is acceptable if you’re a terror on the basepaths or an on-base machine, but that’s not the case with McDonald.

McDonald’s offense is so behind his dazzling glove work, that he’s consistently mentioned among the worst hitting position players in the American League, a dubious distinction to say the least. According to Fangraphs, McDonald isn’t helping the Jays win any more: his Ultimate Zone Rating of plus-9.1 at shortstop is just enough to offset what he’s costing the team with his bat.

McDonald owns a career on-base percentage of .276 and his slugging percentage is a paltry .317, 55 points lower than the notoriously meek hitting Juan Pierre (who has the same number of career homeruns over one less season). Caesar Izturis, a similar shortstop, has an on-base plus slugging percentage of .623, a mere 30 points lower than McDonald’s, but has earned almost double the plate appearances as McDonald.

That’s telling.

Last year, McDonald posted a career high with a .384 slugging percentage. That marked improvement clearly did very little to ease the mind of the Jay’s front office.

Jay’s General Manager Alex Anthopoulos signed McDonald to a 2-year, $3 million deal just one day before effectively replacing him with Gonzalez. For a player who profiles as nothing more than a late-inning defensive replacement and who will be 38-years-old by the time the contract expires, that’s quite a payday.

Only time will tell if it’s money well spent.

As soon as the Chicago White Sox decided to buy out the $950,000 remaining on slugger Jermaine Dye’s contract, the front office began scrambling to replace his offensive production.

They brought in Mark Teahen, a versatile infielder/outfielder with slight pop, from the Kansas City Royals. They re-signed pinch hitter extraordinaire and corner outfielder Mark Kotsay to a one-year deal.

Not surprisingly, those signings did little to inspire confidence in Chicago.

But now they’ve brought in 10-time Gold Glover and five-time All Star, 32-year-old Andruw Jones.

For $500,000.

My how the mighty have fallen.

Jones is a shadow of the player that routinely garnered Most Valuable Player votes as little as three years ago. In limited play with the Texas Rangers in 2009, he hit .214 with 17 homeruns in 281 at-bats. The campaign was actually an improvement over his horrible 2008, when he hit a measly .182 with just three homeruns as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

In recent years, Jones has reverted to one of his old and worn tendencies: swinging at and missing breaking balls. There’s a good article about his rapid decline here.

Jones is just the most recent piece of the White Sox’s expanding bench. It’s highly unlikely that he’ll amount to anything more than a platoon corner outfielder, but Jones is still valuable to Chicago.

It’s entirely possible that he hasn’t forgotten everything that once made him one of the game’s most feared hitters.

Jones averaged a homerun every 16.5 at-bats in 2009. Had he played a full season and amassed more plate appearances, that mark would have been good for eighth in the American League. He also led Texas batters in walk rate in 2009, earning a free pass every 7.4 at-bats.

Jones’ contract with the White Sox includes $1 million in performance based incentives, an advantage he’ll want to make the most of if he hopes to even earn a contract in 2011.

While the signing isn’t likely to quell Chicago fans’ uneasy thoughts about the team’s outfield in 2010, it is a step towards replacing Dye’s offensive production. Jones will most likely split time at the corner outfield positions and as the team’s designated hitter.

For $500,000, the Chicago White Sox could have certainly done worse.